In 1972, scientists at MIT created disaster scenarios about when civilization would collapse in the world using some data. Nearly 49 years later, these scenarios were brought back under scrutiny and it turned out that what we are experiencing now fits with the disaster scenario.
In 1972, scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the USA started a research to predict how and when the collapse of civilization would occur. The most important element in the scope of the research was how people were stable in economic growth without considering environmental and social damage.
This research was reconsidered by a Netherlands-based consulting firm years later, and Gaya Herrington, the company’s Sustainability and Dynamics Systems Analysis Leader, decided to examine the accuracy of MIT’s research. Creating a simulation with the information in the research, Herrington revealed that the things we live in the world now match the disaster scenario written by MIT.
If this continues, social collapse is expected by 2040.
In the simulation created by Herrington, 10 basic variables such as world population, fertility rates, industrial production, non-renewable resources and ecological footprint were examined. When the data obtained by the world were compared with these basic variables, it was concluded that it was similar to the two scenarios written by MIT, BAU2 and CT.
One of the most striking details within the scope of the research is that if the world continues to progress according to this scenario, it will experience a great collapse until 2040. This destruction, called social collapse, will reduce the quality of life of people around the world and there will be a massive collapse in food and industrial production.
As we mentioned at the beginning of our news, the most important thing MIT took into account was that people ignored environmental and social factors while trying to grow economically. Stating that ignoring these factors will lead to a disaster, scientists state that continuous growth is not possible, and even if there is an unprecedented technological development, uncontrolled growth will directly affect the level of welfare, industrial production and agriculture. Herrington, who re-examined MIT’s scenarios, thinks that this negative impact can only be reduced by investing in technological developments and public services.
According to MIT, the date of collapse of civilization was 2020
A simulation created in 1972 using MIT’s computer program World 1 was designed to simulate things going on in the world by 2060. Jerry Foster, who conducted the research at that time, announced that with the data obtained, the quality of life would increase from 1940 to 2020, but with an event in 2020, this quality of life would begin to collapse.
Foster stated in a radio program that he participated in those years, that they predicted an event that would affect people deeply and lead to a decrease in population in 2020, and that life on Earth would end between 2040 and 2050.